Stray drones put Baltic states in crossfire of Ukraine conflict

RIGA – The Baltic states are sounding the alarm after being caught in the crossfire in the past week when several Ukrainian drones veered off course as part of attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have called on the European Union to help shore up air defences.

They also sought to rebuff claims in the Russian media that Ukraine was allowed to use their airspace to conduct the strikes.

But officials were also quick to admit there was not much they could do to prevent such incidents from happening in the future as Kyiv is trying to undermine the key source of revenue that powers Moscow’s war.

“The idea that we could put up a wall with Russia so that nothing ever crosses it is not realistic,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. “No one can create a border or a fortress like that.” 

Waves of Ukrainian attack drones on March 25 set ablaze Russia’s Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea.

One went astray and hit the chimney of a power plant in eastern Estonia, while another crashed and exploded in Latvia.

The authorities in Lithuania reported a Ukrainian drone crashing on March 23. Nobody was injured in the incidents.

While the region is no stranger to the realities of the war, currently in its fifth year, the initial failure to prevent the threat and warn populations has sparked a heated public debate about the Baltic states’ preparedness.

Estonia’s national grid operator said on March 27 it plans to build new concrete defences around electricity infrastructure, while the country’s former military chief Martin Herem told state broadcaster ERR that anything within 50km of the Russian border would be difficult to defend against airborne attacks.

“It’s safe to assume we’ll encounter similar incidents again,” said Ms Margo Palloson, the head of Estonia’s domestic intelligence services.

Moscow operatives were quick to seize on the latest incident as claims spread that Ukrainian drones flew deep through Baltic airspace on their way to attack Russia.

An image of the alleged flight path appeared in the Russian state media.

Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro dismissed it as false in an interview with the Delfi news website on March 27.

While Tallinn supports Ukraine’s self-defence, it is not a party to the war, he said.

The three NATO members on the eastern flank have ramped up defence spending in recent years to deter potential threats.

Russian fighter jets have repeatedly violated the Baltic nations’ airspace.

Poland in 2025 took the unprecedented step to shoot down Russian drones that entered its airspace during a wave of a Russian strike on neighbouring Ukraine.

The Baltic states have poured money into sensors, radars, jamming equipment and counter-drone systems to deal with that challenge. 

However, the advantages of such sophisticated equipment are weakened by the fact that in peacetime, visual confirmation is first required before attempting to shoot down drones, Major General Kaspars Pudans, the commander of Latvia’s armed forces, told Latvian state television.

While the skies above the Baltic states are patrolled by jets from NATO allies, those aircraft could only have responded if the drones had been deeper in Estonian airspace, military chief Andrus Merilo said.

He said that for the defence of the area near the power plant, which is directly on the Russian border, fighter jets were useless.

The Ukrainian strikes have repeatedly forced the closure of St Petersburg’s airspace, the Finnish newspaper Ilta-Sanomat reported.

According to Fintraffic, about 20 to 30 flights per day have had to be redirected through Finland’s airspace.

Those were mostly Turkish and Chinese carriers permitted to use European skies, the aviation authorities said.

Baltic officials said that even the best anti-drone systems cannot provide a watertight defence along the entire border.

“That is simply not possible,” Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds told Latvian TV on March 27. “No country can do that.” BLOOMBERG