HDB resale prices decline for first time in close to 7 years

SINGAPORE – Prices of resale HDB flats have declined for the first time in close to seven years, dropping by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.

The last quarter-to-quarter decline in resale prices was recorded in the second quarter of 2019, said the Housing Board on April 1 as it announced its latest resale price index flash estimate.

The board noted that the latest decline “comes on the back of five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth”.

It added that the resale volume in the first quarter of 2026 – up till March 30 – stands at 6,179 transactions.

For comparison, 6,590 resale transactions were made in the first full quarter of 2025, while 5,256 transactions were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Since the second quarter of 2019, HDB resale prices have either risen or remained unchanged for 26 consecutive quarters, after the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the construction of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats and crimped public housing supply.

HDB noted in January that price growth had been slowing, with growth under 1 per cent for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Analysts attributed the fall in prices to an increased supply of flats on the resale market, as well as the availability of flats with shorter waiting times in BTO exercises.

On the whole, they expect that resale prices will increase in 2026 by no more than 5 per cent. The annual resale price growth was 2.9 per cent in 2025 and 9.7 per cent in 2024.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said: “The marginal dip in the HDB resale price index suggests that the market may be entering a more balanced phase after several years of sustained growth.”

Noting that demand in the latest BTO exercise in February 2026 was centred on flats with shorter waiting times, Mr Lim said: “The resale market continues to act as a crucial outlet for unmet housing demand, especially for buyers who value immediacy.”

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group, which property firms OrangeTee and ETC come under, said the option of shorter waiting time flats in that BTO exercise was a key reason behind the marginal price fall, alongside an increased supply of flats in the resale market.

She noted that about 13,400 flats will reach their minimum occupation period in 2026 – about twice the 6,900 units in 2025 – and that more of such units are expected in the coming years, with 18,900 slated for 2027 and 21,300 for 2028.

With these flats potentially adding to the resale supply, said Ms Sun, home buyers will have more options to choose from, which could reduce pressure on prices.

Ms Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, noted that despite the quarterly sales volume rebounding from 5,256 units in the previous quarter to 6,179 units in the first quarter of 2026, the figure is still among the lowest resale volumes since the second half of 2020.

She expects that resale volume for 2026 will be about 26,000 to 27,000 units, in view of more flats reaching their minimum occupation period in 2026 compared with 2025, and stable demand for resale flats.

Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, said the planned supply of BTO flats – particularly in older estates – will “play an important longer-term role in anchoring price stability in the resale market”.

He cited upcoming public housing projects in areas such as Toa Payoh West and Pearl’s Hill.

Older towns, said Mr Sandrasegeran, have historically recorded a notable number of million-dollar resale transactions, supported by their central locations, strong transport connectivity and well-developed amenities.

An increased supply of such flats will “support a year of more stable and sustainable market conditions”, he said, as well as likely moderate price growth.

Outlook

Looking ahead, analysts said that the HDB resale market has yet to experience the full impact of the war in the Middle East.

Ms Sun said that should the war be prolonged, it could lead to higher interest rates, increased business costs and impacts on employment, which could all dampen consumer confidence and housing affordability in the HDB resale market.

If the conflict persists, said ERA’s Mr Lim, higher energy costs may contribute to inflation and slow down the timeline for interest rate cuts, leading home buyers to be more cautious with their purchases.

“Some HDB home owners might delay their upgrading plans, while those with more flexibility may prefer BTO flats over resale units as they are willing to wait,” he said.

Referencing HDB’s advice to home buyers to exercise prudence when purchasing properties and taking out mortgage loans, because of the uncertain economic outlook, Mr Lim noted that housing demand in Singapore remains largely needs-driven and that well-located, competitively priced flats will continue to attract interest.

Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property search portal Mogul.sg, said that the price decline of resale flats is likely to be short-lived.

“In the absence of an economic recession or a severe glut in the HDB resale market, HDB resale prices will always increase, especially when resident population size and household income are rising,” he said.

With more new citizens expected to be registered in the coming years, he said that housing demand will increase, in turn causing the prices of homes to go up.