A man reacts as he attempts to extinguish a wildfire near his neighbourhood area in Palembang, South Sumatra province, Indonesia, August 10, 2026. REUTERS/Abriansyah Liberto TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

El Nino’s wrath: Brace yourself for impact

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The forecast is increasingly ominous, with a strong, possibly record-breaking El Nino about to play havoc with the world’s weather and oceans.

Droughts, wildfires, floods and severe heatwaves are set to affect millions of people across Asia and the globe.

While El Ninos are part of the earth’s natural cycle, climate change is making these events more dangerous.

What is El Nino?

El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns and pushing up global temperatures. These events happen every two to seven years. Strong events are less frequent.

Burning coal, oil and gas releases greenhouse gases that are heating up the planet. A rapidly warming planet in combination with a powerful El Nino is like pouring fuel on a fire.

It is different from La Nina:

La Nina events are the opposite. Westward-blowing trade winds intensify, causing more warm water to pool around the maritime continent. This results in more rain and cooler weather in this region.

Why the concern?

1. Rise in global temperatures:

El Ninos typically increase global temperatures by releasing heat stored in the ocean. These events can upend daily lives and the livelihoods of many.

Farmers are at greater risk of crop failures and debts, and higher temperatures are a health risk, especially for the elderly, while floods and wildfires can cause deaths and widespread damage.

epa04925230 Indonesian workers carry a long hose to sprays water on forest fires in Pulo Geronggang village, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Sumatera, Indonesia, 11 September 2015. Indonesian authorities deployed 1,000 soldiers in South Sumatra province to fight land fires in the area. Haze from land and forest fires is an annual hazard in Indonesia. The practice of open burning to clear land is illegal but is common in the country. The government has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to last until October, would result in an extended dry spell and more forest fires in Indonesia. EPA/TAMY UTARI caption to come

In 2015, Indonesia faced an extended dry spell and more forest fires due to El Nino. More than 20,000 soldiers, police officers, firefighters and disaster management officials were deployed to combat fires nationwide in September that year.

2. Economic impacts:

Supply chains can be disrupted and electricity generation curtailed as water levels in rivers and dams fall. Food prices can spike too.

Recent research says the extreme 1997-1998 El Nino caused an estimated US$5.7 trillion (S$7.2 trillion) in global economic losses and US$3.9 trillion in the 2015-2016 event.

epa05210488 A photo made available on 14 March 2016 shows a Thai Buddhist novice monk walking on drought parched land at a ruined village which has been underwater after the Mae Chang reservoir dried up in Lampang province, northern Thailand, 12 March 2016. The ruined village including ancient temple had been underwater for 34 years since the Mae Chang reservoir was built in 1982, the area has now re-emerged after water in the reservoir dried up caused by the severe drought. Thailand is facing the worst drought in decades hardest hit by El Nino phenomenon combined with seasonal hot weather. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT
caption to come — Reservoirs in Thailand dried up in 2016 when the country was hit by one of the worst droughts in decades, partly due to El Nino.
PHOTO: EPA

3. A “perfect storm”:

El Nino could push up global average temperatures even further, increasing the chances of 2027 being the hottest year on record, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says.

The past 11 years have been the 11 warmest on record, the WMO says. Global ocean warming continues unabated, with ocean temperatures hitting new records in 2026.

What are the impacts on South-east Asia?

In South-east Asia, past strong El Nino events caused severe drought, crop losses, forest fires and haze, resulting in deaths and widespread respiratory illnesses.

epa13159688 Firefighters extinguish a wildfire in an affected area of Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in Pasuruan, East Java, Indonesia, 10 August 2026. Authorities closed the national park, including the famous Mount Bromo, to all tourist activities following the wildfire. EPA/SADEWA

A drone view shows a residential area along the Musi river as smog covers it due to recent wildfires in Palembang, South Sumatra province, Indonesia, August 11, 2026. REUTERS/Abriansyah Liberto

dfnino - EPA pix - epa12864357 Thai farmer, Prathip Phuangmala, farms with a boom sprayer at a paddy field in Ayutthaya province, Thailand, 01 April 2026. Thai farmers are struggling with shortages of diesel, fertilizer, and insecticides, alongside rising production costs, which threaten their crops amid the ongoing global fuel price surge worsened by the US-Israel war on Iran. Disrupted oil imports from the Middle East have caused an energy crisis and fuel scarcity in Thailand, impacting agricultural production and transportation, and severely affecting farmers� operations and livelihoods. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that the Middle East conflict could trigger a global fertilizer crisis and threaten worldwide food security due to scarcity and rising prices. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT

epa13160581 Motorbike riders commute amid a city skyline blanketed in haze, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 11 August 2026. Kuala Lumpur has recorded unhealthy air quality as the air pollutant index (API) reading was 133, which was recorded at 9 am on 11 August. An API reading of zero to 50 indicates good air quality; 51 to 100 (moderate); 101 to 200 (unhealthy); 201 to 300 (very unhealthy); and 300 and above (hazardous). As a result, particulate haze was present throughout the city. EPA/FAZRY ISMAIL

Indonesia is facing the full force of El Nino. Hot, dry weather is damaging crops and fuelling wildfires. Nearly 95,000ha burned across the country in July alone, the government says.

Thick haze smothered Palembang city, in Indonesia’s South Sumatra province, on Aug 11, 2026. The risk from haze is growing for Indonesia and neighbouring nations, including Malaysia and Singapore, as El Nino’s impacts worsen in the months ahead.

In Thailand, rice farmers are at risk from drier weather in the months ahead.

Malaysia is getting ready for temperatures potentially exceeding 40 deg C in the coming months. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia climatologist Fredolin Tangang says El Nino is expected to peak at the end of 2026 before weakening in early 2027.

What’s the latest forecast?

In its latest update, the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says El Nino is still strengthening and there is a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter in 2026-27.

“Very strong” is defined as being 2 deg C or more above an index value (the ocean warming in the main El Nino monitoring region of the tropical Pacific Ocean).

The CPC also says there is a 69 per cent chance of a historic event that will exceed the strength of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

What are the global impacts?

El Nino brings drought to Australia, India and Indonesia in the Southern Hemisphere summer and to South America in the Southern Hemisphere winter.

El Nino typically brings hotter, drier weather to South-east Asia and Australia that raises the risks of heat-related injuries or deaths; droughts that stress water supplies and crops; spikes in food prices; and wildfires. But it can also bring heavy rain to places, including Peru, eastern Africa and the Southern United States.

dfnino - Bloomberg News pix - A farmer at a flooded rice paddy field on the outskirts of Mumbai, India, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. An intensifying El Nino and global warming are driving a shift in India’s monsoon rainfall, creating more erratic weather patterns that threaten to dent agricultural output and strain power grids. Photographer: Indranil Aditya/Bloomberg — An intensifying El Nino and global warming are driving a shift in India’s monsoon rainfall, creating more erratic weather patterns that threaten to dent agricultural output and strain power grids.

The phenomenon disrupts the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic but leads to more hurricanes and cyclones in the central Pacific.

El Nino can also bring devastating impacts to the world’s oceans, including marine heatwaves that can cause mass coral bleaching, disruption of key ocean currents and damage to seagrass meadows and kelp forests. Warmer seas fuel storms and heavy rain.

It is not all gloom, though.

El Nino can bring regional benefits, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Apart from causing a smaller number of Atlantic hurricanes, it can bring drought relief to normally dry parts of the US and South America, milder winters in North America and increased rainfall for agriculture in East Africa.

Hotter, drier weather can also curb mosquito numbers.

Closer to home, Indonesian salt farmers in Java are reaping a bumper crop from the drier, hotter weather. This allows them to produce salt faster, which they can store to sell later.