Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates
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Australia’s population growth is expected to slow to 0.9 per cent a year over the next four decades.
PHOTO: REUTERS
- Australia expects deaths to exceed births by the 2060s, signalling a major demographic shift with slower population growth and an ageing society.
- The government predicts population growth to slow to 0.9 per cent annually due to declining fertility and reduced net migration, down from 1.4 per cent over the past 40 years.
- An ageing population will increase demand for healthcare and aged care, causing labour shortages, especially as immigration slows under tighter government policies.
AI generated
SYDNEY – Australia forecast on Sept 21 that deaths would exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, a demographic shift with far-reaching implications for an economy grappling with an ageing population, declining births and cuts to immigration.
For decades, Australia has sustained population growth by relying on immigration to offset low birth rates. But with immigration now slowing, it is starting to look down a path already taken by many advanced economies including Japan, Germany and South Korea, where deaths have already outnumbered births.
In an Intergenerational Report published on Sept 21, the Treasury department identified AI, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, an ageing population and a shift to a service-based economy as the five most consequential transformations facing the country’s economic outlook over the next four decades.
It expects population growth to slow to 0.9 per cent a year over the next four decades as fertility rates decline and net overseas migration – the difference between the number of incoming migrants and people leaving the country – continues to fall before stabilising. That is down from an average of 1.4 per cent rise over the past 40 years.
“For the first time, deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a speech. “The number of Australians over 85 will triple by 2066, putting further demand on health services.”
The Labour government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to fend off a surge in support for the populist One Nation party that has pledged to sharply curb immigration.
His approval rating slipped this week to its lowest level since he became prime minister in 2022.
The report said an ageing population would boost demand in care services, with regions with older populations facing labour shortages in healthcare and aged care sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers.
The report also flagged tax cuts in future budgets as Labour doles out more cost-of-living relief to Australians grappling with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates and expensive housing. REUTERS