Trump and Xi are seeking to escape Thucydides’ Trap, says Harvard’s Graham Allison

PHILADELPHIA – A cloud of low expectations had dogged the Trump-Xi summit but Harvard professor Graham Allison, who has questioned whether the US and China can avoid war, saw signs of big and multi-faceted success.

An early dividend from the first day of the summit was that three more leader-level engagements are on the cards, heralding a spell of significant strategic stability in a world roiled by wars in Iran and Ukraine.

This was the result of President Donald Trump extending a public invitation for his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to visit the United States on Sept 24. It seemed to build upon the idea mooted by Mr Xi himself of “constructive strategic stability” guiding their relationship over the next three years and beyond, with cooperation as the mainstay.

Mr Xi has not yet formally accepted Mr Trump’s invitation but the idea of a continuing dialogue allows the summit to conclude on a note of hope even if differences remain on knotty issues ranging from Taiwan to export controls.

The other two in-person meets are likely to be at the APEC meeting of Asia-Pacific economies in Shenzhen in November, followed by the Group of 20 gathering of the world’s largest economies in Miami.

Mr Xi’s opening remarks on May 14, the first day of the summit, set the tone for the summit and apparently resonated with Mr Trump’s own agenda. The message was unambiguous – the two near-peer nations must check their rivalry and learn to live as equals. 

The Chinese President dipped into the concept popularised by Prof Allison’s 2017 book that examines historical patterns to ask if war is almost destined when an emerging power challenges a ruling one.

“Can China and the United States overcome ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ and establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers?” Mr Xi asked.

The reference to the trap set off questions whether it was a polite framing of China’s view of the US as a “declining nation” although Mr Xi did not explicitly use the term.

But Mr Trump was stung enough to address the point in a way that blamed his predecessor Joe Biden for the strains coursing through the world’s biggest economy and military power.

“When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden administration, and on that score, he was 100% correct,” Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 15.

Prof Allison told The Straits Times that the summit had begun on the right note. “Presidents Xi and Trump are asking the right question. And they are seriously seeking to reshape this rivalry to find a way to escape Thucydides’ Trap,” he said.

Mr Xi also told Mr Trump that China’s advancement could go “hand in hand”, making a reference to his political movement and aligning it with his own nationalistic slogan. “The people of China and the United States are both great peoples. Achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and Making America Great Again can go hand in hand,” Mr Xi said, making a toast to his visitor at an evening banquet. It was probably the first time that he had mentioned MAGA.

Prof Allison said the pomp-filled event in Beijing will be remembered as the “business” summit in which economics is elevated to a position of equality with geopolitics and “business statecraft” comes to play a larger role in diplomacy. 

The proof, he added, lies in the composition of Mr Trump’s delegation. It included Tesla chief executive officer Elon Musk, the richest businessman in the world, Mr Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, as well as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Apple CEO Tim Cook who lead two of the world’s only four companies valued at over US$4 trillion (S$5.1 trillion).

“Each wants this to be a success; each is prepared to give the other what he needs to declare the summit successful; each has informed the other that he’s prepared to deliver; and the summit managers working for each team have laid the groundwork to ensure success,” Prof Allison said in a May 13 essay for National Interest, an online publication focused on geopolitical issues.

Details of business deals struck during the summit are not yet available.

But for Mr Xi, the summit helps preserve China’s path to superpower status.

“Xi wants to sustain the current permissive environment in which China can continue its rise to become the world’s leading economy, trading partner, manufacturer and technology developer,” Prof Allison said in his essay.

For Mr Trump, what is at stake is the US economy, the key to maintaining his own political strength in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections. Besides, the self-styled “peace president”, who had positioned China as the greatest strategic rival to the US in his first term, sees another chance at making history.

“For Trump, facing midterm elections on Nov 3 in which Republican defeat in the House and potentially the Senate would constrain his power to pursue his own agenda, a productive relationship with China that fuels a ‘roaring hot’ US economy is a necessity,” said Prof Allison.

“Moreover, for someone who aspires to be remembered as a great peacemaker, the possibility of a US-China-led Pax Pacifica remains alluring.”