ISTANBUL – Turks dealt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party their biggest electoral blow on March 31 in a nationwide local vote that reasserted the opposition as a political force and reinforced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as the President’s chief rival.

With most of the votes counted, Mr Imamoglu led by 10 percentage points in the mayoral race in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, while his Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained the capital Ankara and gained 15 mayoral seats in other cities.

It marked the worst defeat for Mr Erdogan and his AK Party (AKP) in their more than two decades in power, and could signal a change in the country’s divided political landscape.

Mr Erdogan called it a “turning point” in a post-midnight address.

He and the AKP fared worse than opinion polls predicted owing to soaring inflation, dissatisfied Islamist voters and, in Istanbul, Mr Imamoglu’s appeal beyond the CHP’s secular base, analysts said.

“Those who do not understand the nation’s message will eventually lose,” Mr Imamoglu, 53, told thousands of jubilant supporters late on March 31, some of them chanting for Mr Erdogan to resign.

“Tonight, 16 million Istanbul citizens sent a message to both our rivals and the President,” said the former businessman, who entered politics in 2008 and is now widely touted as a likely presidential challenger.

Mr Erdogan, who in the 1990s was also mayor of his home town Istanbul, had campaigned hard ahead of the municipal elections, which analysts described as a gauge of both his support and the opposition’s durability.

Addressing crowds gathered at AKP headquarters in Ankara, Mr Erdogan said his alliance had “lost altitude” across the nation and will take steps to address the message from voters.

“If we made a mistake, we will fix it” in the years ahead, he said. “If we have anything missing, we will complete it.”

Elsewhere in Ankara, thousands more supporters had earlier waved Turkish and party flags for a speech by re-elected CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas, who trounced his AKP challenger in another disappointment for Mr Erdogan.

According to 92.92 per cent of ballot boxes opened in Istanbul, Europe’s largest city and Turkey’s economic engine, Mr Imamoglu had 50.92 per cent support compared with 40.05 per cent for AKP challenger Murat Kurum, a former minister in Mr Erdogan’s national government.

Polls had predicted a tight contest in Istanbul and possible CHP losses across the country.

Yet partial official results reported by state-run Anadolu Agency showed AKP and its main ally giving up mayoralties in 19 key municipalities, including big cities Bursa and Balikesir in the industrialised north-west, possibly reflecting strains on wage earners.

The CHP led nationwide by almost 1 per cent of the votes, a first in 35 years, the results showed.

Assistant Professor Mert Arslanalp, a political science expert at Istanbul’s Bogazici University, said it was Mr Erdogan’s “severest election defeat” since coming to national power in 2002.

“Imamoglu demonstrated he could reach across the deep socio-political divisions that define Turkey’s opposition electorate even without their institutional support,” he said. “This makes him the most politically competitive rival to Erdogan’s regime.”

Imamoglu’s rise

In 2019, Mr Imamoglu had dealt Mr Erdogan a sharp electoral blow when he first won Istanbul, ending 25 years of rule in the city by AKP and its Islamist predecessors, including Mr Erdogan’s own run as its mayor in the 1990s.

CHP also won Ankara that year.

The President struck back in 2023 by securing re-election and a parliamentary majority with his nationalist allies, despite a years-long cost-of-living crisis.

Analysts said the economic strains, including nearly 70 per cent inflation and a slowdown in growth brought on by an aggressive monetary-tightening regime, moved voters to punish AKP this time.

“The economy was the decisive factor,” said Mr Hakan Akbas, a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group. “Turkish people demanded change, and Imamoglu is now the default nemesis to President Erdogan.”

Mr Erdogan said ending the second election cycle in less than a year will itself bring a reprieve for the economy.

In front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality building, flag-waving supporters said they wanted to see Mr Imamoglu challenge Mr Erdogan for the presidency in the future.

“We are very happy. I love him so much. We would like to see him as president,” said Ms Esra, a housewife.

Rising popular support for the Islamist New Welfare Party, which took an even more hardline stance than Mr Erdogan against Israel over the Gaza conflict, also sapped AKP support. The party took Sanliurfa city in the south-east from an AKP incumbent.

Mr Imamoglu was re-elected despite the collapse of the opposition alliance that failed to topple Mr Erdogan in 2023.

The main pro-Kurdish party, which backed Mr Imamoglu in 2019, fielded its own candidate under the democratic DEM Party banner in Istanbul this time.

But many Kurds put aside party loyalty and voted for Mr Imamoglu again, the results suggest.

In the mainly Kurdish south-east, the DEM Party reaffirmed its strength, winning 10 provinces. Following previous elections, the state replaced pro-Kurdish mayors with state-appointed “trustees” over alleged militant ties.

Violence erupted earlier on March 31, including one incident in the south-east involving clashes by groups armed with guns, sticks and stones, killing one and wounding 11.

In another incident, a neighbourhood official, or “muhtar”, candidate was killed, and four people were wounded in a fight, Anadolu reported.

Several others were hurt in other incidents, while one person was shot dead and two were wounded overnight ahead of the vote in Bursa, the Demiroren news agency reported. REUTERS